Hillary made history when she won the New Hampshire primary!!
Hillary's stunning victory in New Hampshire Tuesday night made her the First woman in American History to win a primay state in an election!!!
The pundits that proclaimed Hillary was finished must now eat crow!! It gives me great pleausre to watch Sean Hannity, Chris Matthews, Dick Morris and all the Hillary-Haters spin their own ineptness. Will the heads of these so-called "news" organizations realize how biased their newscasters are? Now everyone can see just how unfair Hillary's treatment has been by the media, not only in this campaign but throughout her entire public life.
Hillary did not win NH because she "welled up with tears" as the pundits would have you believe. Two nights earlier, her campaigns internal polling showed a significant change towards her direction after voters watched her in the NH debate. Voters that changed to support Hillary after the debate mentioned that they did not approve of the way Obama and Edwards ganged up in a "buddy" system against her. When Hillary was questioned about her likeability factor, voters felt that Obama's remark about her being "likeable enough" was disingenuous (here's the video link):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoMCoMMgeO0
Hillary made her case to NH voters that night by showing them that she is already a proven Agent of Change, not by giving speeches, but by providing action to enforce the change. She told them that being the first woman President is a HUGE change and has implications throughout the world.
Charlie Gibson asked Edwards and Obama to each give an example of legislation that they passed that changed or effected people's lives. Edwards brought up his Patient's Bill of Rights, but Gibson pointed out it did not pass the Senate. Obama offered legislation that did not permit lobbyists to buy members of congress lunch anymore. But, Gibson pointed out that they can still buy members of congress lunch as long as they are standing up when they are eating!!
Hillary pointed out that Obama talks about no lobbyists in his administration, yet the head of his NH campaign is a state lobbyist for a Pharmaceutical Company!!
Hillary's closing argument was a good one - "With Change you need Action". Her record on bringing about change for people speaks for itself: She passed bipartision legislation such as the Children's Healthcare Program (CHIPS), the national Child Immunization plan, the Adoption Act moving Foster children to adoption more quickly, and she has a long record of supporting Education going all the way back to her days in Arkansas as the Board of Education Chair, increasing Education standards significantly.
The results from the NH primary show two very important things:
1. Women made the difference, they came out in droves in support for Hillary. Women were 57% of the
vote in NH and Hillary had 46% of their vote.
2. Hillary actually BEAT JOHN MCCAIN among Independent Voters by 21%!!!
This is HUGE because it dispells the rumour that she is polarizing and unelectable. It proves she is capable of beating him (and a Republican) in the General Election where the Independent voters will make the difference!! (where's the media on this one?)
A couple other interesting facts. Obama did NOT have the youth vote locked up. 18-24yrs went to Obama. But 25-29 she beat him and 50+ she beat him by double digits.
Hillary beat Obama among union voters and blue collar workers by 9 pts.
Voters stated that the Economy was their #1 issue or concern - she beat him by 9 pts on this issue. The issues of Iraq, Healthcare, Global Warming and National Security - she beat Obama anywhere from 2-6%.
When asked the following questions:
Who has the best chance of winning the Whitehouse in 2008? Hillary beat Obama by 17%
Who would make the best Commander-in-Chief? Hillary beat Obama by 12%
Who is the Best Leader? Hillary beat Obama by 3%
The reason the results were so different in Iowa is mainly because Iowa is a caucus - voters must state their vote publicly, the vote was held for 1/2 hour on a Tuesday night - no other options are provided for voters that could not find child care, had to work, or were ill. So, the turnout favored Obama.
Moving Forward
Hillary has a total of 183 delegates, Obama has 78. 2,025 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
Tuesday, Jan 15th is the Michigan Primary. Hillary will win there because Obama and Edwards did not bother to put their names on the ballot. Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates when the DNC decided to punish them for holding their primaries early. Most believe that once MI and FL arrive at the delegation in August they will be seated and counted.
Saturday, Jan 19th is the Nevada CAUCUS. This is another caucus where you have only 1 day (few hours) to publicly declare your vote. The last NV poll showed Hillary ahead, but Obama did receive two significant Union endorsements. But, NV knows Hillary for her fight in the Senate calling hearings on Yucca Mtn as an environmental hazard. It's also possible that Hillary will gain Richardson's support with Latinos who favor her.
Hillary's website outlines everything you need to do in NV to understand the caucus process (also you can call 1-800-HRC-WIN1): here is the link to learn more:
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/hq/nevada/caucus/
Saturday, Jan 26 will be the South Carolina primary. Right now Obama is ahead, but is trending downward (was 12% ahead after IA, now 7% ahead after NH). 50% of the voters are African-American. The deciding factor will be African-American Women. Will the Oprah endorsement play well here? They absolutely LOVE Bill Clinton so it's hard to tell.
Florida is Tuesday, January 29th. Like Michigan, their delegates have been stripped, but believed to be reinstated at the convention. Last poll shows Hillary ahead by 8 pts.
Super - Tsunami - Tuesday, February 5th. This is when the vast majority of all states hold their primary election. California is the biggest win with 370 delegates!!! Then New York (Hillary will win) with 232, then Illinois (Barack will win) with 153, then New Jersey with 107 (Hillary).
As Hillary stated, the decision will be made on the evening of February 5th when the west coast finishes voting.
There are 2 more debates: Jan 21, CNN, Myrtle Beach, SC and the last one on Jan 31, at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood.
Why I believe Hillary will win
Obama will now be scrutinized. People will learn about a man named Tony Rezko that is being brought up on corruption charges in Illinois for bribes. He is involved with Obama in a land deal that is not, necessarily illegal (on Obama's part), but is shady. ABC broke the news today (read it here):
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=4111483&page=1
It brings out the issue of Obama's message of change if he doesn't want lobbyists or "those kind" of people in his administration, why is he doing business with them. He said he made a mistake, but then that calls him on his judgement which he has critized Hillary on for months.
Obama's legislative record will now be looked at. People will see that he missed nearly 80% of all votes in the Senate since he began campaigning (Hillary missed 63%). He missed a very crucial vote on funding for the Children's Healthcare program. He has criticized Hillary for supporting the amendment calling Iran's Guard a terrorist organization, but he didn't bother to show up and vote against it.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/11/02/obama.missed.votes/index.html
Obama voted "present" (the equivalent of "no") on 7 Women's Right to Choose ammendments.
Obama stated he would not support the Patriot Act, then voted for it.
Obama voted for Bush's energy policy (Hillary voted against it) which provided over $13 billion in subsidies to Oil Companies.
Obama has voted exactly the same as Hillary on Iraq war funding bills, even though he claims he has never "supported" the Iraq war.
Hillary has always maintained a lead among main-stream democrats. Independents will play a smaller role in the rest of the primaries (they played a large role in Iowa and New Hampshire).
Hillary beat Obama in fundraising for the 4th quarter.
Voters now say their #1 concern is the Economy. Hillary will be able to remind people of the prosperous 90's and how the Clinton adminstration turned the economy around. Obama has NO Economic experience of any kind.
Republicans were asked at the last debate how they would compete with Obama in a General Election. Each one said the same thing: Concern over his national security experience, and his experience in general.
New Hampshire women started the ball rolling. They gave their approval and made the statement that it's O.K. to vote for a Woman President - the time is NOW.
52%-54% of the national voting population is female. If Hillary can maintain her current level of support among women voters - she will Win the Whitehouse.
It's up to all of YOU. Your support is absolutely Necessary. GO OUT AND VOTE FOR HILLARY!!
I thought Hillary's speech was fantastic. I watched her on Meet the Press today and she really proves time and again that she has a command of the issues. She's got my vote.
Reply to this